Level 1: Maybe, sure or never

Probability · level 1 of 8 · rough age 5-6 (a guide for parents; anyone can start anywhere)

Probability is the math of chance: of things that might happen and might not. It starts with three small words: sure, maybe and never. In this level you sort things into those three piles, find out why one colour comes out of a bag more often than another, choose who goes first in a way that is fair to everyone, build your own spinner, and flip coins and roll dice to see what chance really looks like. Every lesson has something to do with your hands, and answers to check.

Lesson	You will be able to
Sure, maybe, never	Sort things that could happen into sure, maybe and never, and say why each one goes where it goes
More likely and less likely	Look inside a bag of blocks and say which colour is more likely to come out, and why
Taking turns fairly	Tell a fair way of choosing from an unfair one, and use coins, straws and rock-paper-scissors fairly
Spinners	Say where a spinner will land more often, and make a fair spinner of your own
The coin flip experiment	Flip a coin 20 times, keep a tally, and explain why 10 heads and 10 tails is not what usually happens
Rolling a die	Explain why each face of a die is just as likely, and tell which of two dice games wins more often

Next: Level 2: Fair or unfair? · Back to the topic: Probability