Probability

Probability is the mathematics of chance: how likely something is, and what to expect when you cannot be sure. It starts with dice games and the question "is this fair?" and climbs to the tools used to judge medical tests, games and risks of every kind.

Step	Page	You will be able to
Play	Fair or unfair?	Describe how likely things are and tell whether a game is fair
Explore	Chances as numbers	Give a probability as a number from 0 to 1, list outcomes and use experiments
Build	"And", "or", and tree diagrams	Combine probabilities with the rules for "and", "or" and "at least one", and draw tree diagrams
Master	Conditional probability	Work out chances that depend on what you already know, from two-way tables to medical tests
Beyond	Expected value	Find what a game is worth in the long run, make games fair and use the binomial distribution